The immensely popular DVD format is now mature and widely adopted. It is also ten years old, and starting to show its limitations. High-definition displays are beginning to penetrate the market in the form of plasma, LCD, and rear-projection displays. The venerable DVD standard, however, is limited in data capacity and is unable to deliver HD content. For several years, major electronics companies have been developing new standards for the next generation of optical discs to deliver high-definition content. Toshiba and NEC have championed HD-DVD, while Sony and Philips have led the development of the competing Blu-ray format. Both of these standards use discs of the same diameter and thickness as DVD and CD, and both use 405 nm blue lasers for reading and writing data (as opposed to DVD, which uses a 650 nm red laser). The two formats, however, are incompatible.

Some efforts have been made over recent months to merge the two standards to define a single next-generation format for consumers, however, it appears that these discussions have been fruitless. It appears that the market will be presented with two competing, incompatible formats.

I do not intend to compare the benefits of the two formats, as this has been done ad nauseum elsewhere. Suffice it to say that, from the viewpoint of the average consumer, both formats offer comparable features. The main difference at this stage appears to be that HD-DVD will be marginally less expensive, while Blu-Ray will offer somewhat higher capacity (though both are sufficient for a full-length movie in high definition).

Format wars are nothing new. Perhaps the most widely recognised was the Betamax vs. VHS videotape conflict in the late 1970s and early 80s. Sony's Betamax format was widely regarded to be a superior format, though VHS hardware was more accessible and less expensive. By the mid-80s, due to a range of factors, though possibly mostly through marketing, VHS had gained 90% of the market share, and Betamax quickly disappeared. The videotape format war left consumers who selected Betamax out in the cold, having made large investments in equipment that became quickly obsolete (at the time, Betamax players were priced around $4000 in today's money).

In the early 1990s, the development of DVD was headed down the same track. Philips and Sony had developed the Multimedia Compact Disc, while Toshiba, Matsushita, JVC, and others, backed the competing Super Density (SD) Disc. Experiences with the videotape wars, however, left a bad taste in many mouths, and the consumer electronics companies realised that it was in nobody's interests to repeat it. Negotiations between these groups resulted in a compromise format, based on the SD disc, with some modifications - the DVD. Everybody rejoiced and all the consumers bought DVD.

It seemed, however, that not everybody had learnt their lessons. A few years later, the recordable DVD formats were developed. DVD-R/RW, DVD+R/RW, and DVD-RAM were developed by various groups, and all were incompatible. Early adopters simply purchased the first on the market - DVD-R. Many, however, were more wary, and chose to wait until it was clear that one technology would dominate. This slowed adoption of both formats, and everybody suffered. Eventually, hardware became available that supported both DVD-R and DVD+R formats, and many consumers were satisfied that their investment would not be obsolete. Virtually all writers now support both of these standards, and most consumers are no longer aware of the issue.

Even more recently, new high-definition audio disc formats have come on the market. DVD-Audio and SACD both seek to replace CD as the preferred audio distribution medium, and both offer substantially better fidelity than the incumbent CD. Adoption of these formats has been lacklustre, and it is easy to see why. Most consumers do not perceive any problems with CD sound quality, and are reluctant to spend their hard-earned dollars on new equipment, or on new discs, while it seems likely that one of these formats will fail. Unfortunately, it seems likely that this lack of confidence will have an unfortunate result - both formats will fail to be widely adopted, and consumers will instead move to online distribution, or stick with CD. Indeed, sales of DVD-Audio and SACD content suggest that they are already in decline.

So we have four precedents for possible outcomes for the DVD vs. Blu-Ray war: both formats will compete in the open market, and the consumer will choose the winner; industry will compromise and agree on a single standard; both formats will falter until multi-format devices become available that will make the distinction moot; the consumer will not perceive sufficient benefit to make the investment in either technology, and both will fail.

Judging by the recordable DVD and high-definition audio markets, the first scenario seems unlikely - consumers will not risk investing in a dead-end technology. It now appears that the second scenario is unlikely, given that both groups are intent on their own formats. That leaves the last two. Being something of a movie buff, and having seen how good HD video can look, I'm really hoping that at least one of these technologies is as successful as DVD. For that to happen, though, we need to rely on the mass market seeing the benefit of HD, and having access to reasonably-priced multi-format devices. I don't think I'll be selling my DVD collection quite yet.

[Update April 2009] Well the war is over. Much to my surprise, the consumers voted with their wallets and chose BluRay as the de facto standard for High Def video. Once the writing was on the wall, I took the plunge and bought a Panasonic BluRay player. I'm totally hooked on HD.